Read The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival By C. A. E. Goodhart
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Ebook About This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.Book The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival Review :
Goodhart and Pradhan have put forth an interesting argument on why inflation should reappear. They point to lots of evidence both with the aging of world populations and an inward-turning China. Whether these traits lead to a re-inflation of the economy will have to be seen. One of their arguments is that a decline in the 25-54 age population will reduce the number of producers as opposed to consumers and this will be inflationary. I seem to recall that when the baby boom generation entered the workforce in the 1960-70s, they expanded the number of producers relative to the US population and were blamed for the increase in inflation at that time. Whether the traits cited by the authors have the effects that they predict (and whether the results can be traced back to demography alone) remains to be seen. Correlation is not causation, as they say. This book is a very up-to-date review of several research areas on the effects of demography on the macroeconomy, and possible measures to combat inflation, the debt trap, taxation flaws, and many more things. The authors don't follow the mainstream analysis - which is indeed flawed - and dare to put controversial ideas on the agenda.Unfortunately, the main point of the book, that the demographic reversal - more dependent elderly and fewer working people - will inevitably lead to inflation, is overly simplistic. Yes, it will, if the participation rate will not change, if there is yet full employment, if the consumption habits will not change, if the monetary system will stay unchanged, if there will no major conflicts or disasters, if international trade flows will not change.... Way too many conditions to be a simple cause-effect relationship. And stating that you can treat the world as one big economy, is a distorted view of reality. Globalisation only affects a minor part of most economies. In the so-called "open" economy of Japan, imports and exports only account for one fifth of GDP... So there will always be economies with deflation and others with inflation, both having the same demographic trends.Most other analyses are more balanced, with different factors being analyzed and pros and contras well taken into account.Another flaw, but which is present in the majority of economics works is the pretended relationship between savings, investment and growth. Since the nineteenth century, economists hold that more savings mean more investment and more growth. However, this relationship broke down with the introduction of fiat money. By definition, debt-financed investment is equal to savings in one period. But what this increased savings will mean to consumption, investment and growth in the next period is dependent on many different factors, not at least expectations. It can go in any direction !A last flaw is the neoclassical idea that interest rates are the equilibrium price between savings and investment. Keynes showed a long time ago that interest rates must be understood as the price for liquidity. But fortunately it does not affect most of the analysis on the effect of changing interest rates in the book.This book is a must read for everybody interested in looking critically at the economic future. Long time trends are mostly absent from economic analysis, because the DSGE models and equilibrium analyses have a horizon of at most a few years. The authors rightly expose that several factors that are considered to be constant ("ceteris paribus") in mainstream economics are changing over the long term. This seems to me to be the most important lesson from the book, not the (unlikely) influence of the reversal of demography on inflation.A basic knowledge of macroeconomics is needed to understand most of the more technical issues. In the Kindle edition, tables and charts are a little bit small, but this only a minor problem. And apart from some overly simplistic ideas, it is a very interesting book about many policy proposals that are currently been made. 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